Vax Barely Helps Old , Hurts Young

Death Rates by Vax Status and Age
The data is richer than Berenson shows, and is presented by ONS in four age buckets (“10-59” “60-69” “70-79” “80+”) and four vax status buckets (“Unvaccinated”, “Within 21 days of first dose”, “21 days or more after first dose”, “Second dose”). It’s most unfortunate they don’t break the young out separately.

The data runs from January through the end of September 2021 (October and November are missing). The data are weekly number of all cause deaths and the population size of the age and vax group for that week.

Let’s look at Berenson’s plot reimagined, but we’ll use all the data and present each age and vax bucket. Since having all in one plot would be too busy, I produce separate ones for each age bucket. The y-axis is in “scientific notation”, wherein e.g. “2e+07” = 20,000,000 (7 zeros), and “6e-05” = 0.00006 (5 decimal points), etc. Note carefully the range changes for each plot.

I think putting rates in terms of 100,000, as both Berenson and ONS did, can be misleading, so I show the actual rates.

Read More